BANGKOK  (IPS) - Flash floods that hit northern Thailand in May, killing nearly 100 people, have revealed the vulnerability of communities to freak weather patterns in the region, say environmentalists. And this, they warn, will not be the last. 

   The heavy rains in the three worst-hit provinces bear this out. Uttaradit, Sukhothai and Phrae received a fifth of their annual rainfall, which is 1,500 millimetres, leading to flash floods and mudslides in May 23. 

   ''In less than a week, these provinces got 300 mm of rain,'' Tara Buakamsri, climate campaigner for the South-east Asia office of Greenpeace, the environmental lobby, told IPS. ''There are reports that this is the most rainfall in Uttaradit in 20 years, or even more.'' 

   These early monsoon rains have transformed some areas into a sea of mud that, at some points, was nearly two meters deep. The local media have carried images of wooden homes collapsed and on their sides and people waist-deep in water wading through streets. Over 100,000 people have been affected. 

   Greenpeace pointed out that such freak weather due to climate change was predicted by scientists at a Bangkok conference in March. They referred to Anond Sanidwongs of the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research predicting that ''La Nina is forming and should start hitting Thailand and Asia in the next two months, at the beginning of the rainy season.'' He had further predicted that ‘'the La Nina event will cause landslides and flooding nationwide.'' 

   La Nina, which means ''the little girl'' in Spanish, is the name given to changing climate patterns arising out of extremely cold ocean temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. 

   Other experts are not surprised by the disaster that struck an area located between two watershed systems, serving the Yom River and the Nan River. ''The soil was completely saturated with rain and could not hold any more water,'' Patrick Durst, senior forestry officer at the Asia-Pacific office of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said in an interview. 

   ''These natural disasters are much more complex than simply blaming it on illegal logging,'' he adds. ''It is good that people are talking about possible links to changing weather patterns.'' 

   But if that means governments need to be better prepared to deal with such disasters then Thai authorities stand exposed for falling short, say local newspapers. 

   ''The mineral resources department made the shocking revelation that most of those who perished in Uttaradit could have been saved if only local officials had followed existing precautionary safety measures stipulated for incidents of torrential rainfall and ordered the evacuation of communities located at the foot of mountains or in valleys,'' ‘The Nation' daily commented in an editorial on Thursday. 

   Just how unaware the people were of the looming danger in an area designated as disaster prone is revealed in another account carried by the paper. ''Kham Khmasen, 49, of Ban Pha Moob village said when the rainwater started flooding houses in the village to knee height, most people were still unconcerned and unhurriedly moved their possessions to a higher place; some stayed in front of the TV watching their favourite soap operas,'' the English language daily wrote. 

   Thaksin Shinawatra, who resumed his role as caretaker prime minister after a seven-week break following a controversial election in early April, has already set his sights on warning systems that failed the local communities. ''Mr. Thaksin promised to build shelters for victims and review early warning systems to better prepare for such disasters,'' reports Thursday's 'Bangkok Post' newspaper. 

   At the end of last year, it was Thailand's southern provinces that were inundated by heavy rains and floods that were the worst the region had experienced in 30 years. The freak weather, which struck around Christmas period, killed 35 people, left 30,000 homeless and affected some 700,000 people in towns and villages. 

   In August 2001, storms followed by severe floods in provinces close to Uttaradit also left a trail of disaster, with many villages buried under muddy waters and the death toll reaching 120 people. 

   In 1988 the country experienced one of its worst storms when heavy rains, flash floods and mudslides killed 317 people. Deforestation due to heavy logging was fingered as one factor behind that disaster. It led to a logging ban in Thai forests. 

   In recent years, Thailand has suffered weather at another extreme -- severe droughts. Nearly 63 of the country's 76 provinces were hit by one of the worst droughts during the 2004-2005 period, destroying 809,000 hectares of farmland and affecting 9.2 million people, according to Greenpeace. 

   ''Government must take note of this changing weather patterns as well as realising that more people are living in vulnerable areas,'' says Durst of the U.N. food agency. ''More preparedness is needed to mitigate the impact on communities.'' (END/2006)